From One Cause to Webs of Causality

Empirical Evidence for a Cognitive Framework to Solve Wicked Problems

Derek Cabrera 1,2,3,* and Laura Cabrera 1,2,3

1. Cornell University

2. Cabrera Research Lab

3. Brooks School of Public Policy

   * Correspondence

   
   

Abstract: Wicked problems defy simple solutions. From climate change to mass shootings, their causes are not singular but systemic, interconnected, and often politicized. Yet in both public discourse and policy design, one-cause and root-cause thinking continue to dominate. This paper introduces Webs of Causality (WoC) and Connect-the-Dots (CtD) thinking as cognitively grounded, empirically supported frameworks for understanding and addressing wicked problems. Drawing on four complementary studies—including experimental interventions, national surveys, and systematic literature reviews—we demonstrate: (1) the persistent human tendency to select and politicize a single cause from a known WoC, and (2) the effectiveness of six DSRP-based cognitive moves in improving causal reasoning and solution design. Together, these studies validate a new cognitive protocol for mapping complex problems and designing systemic, simultaneous interventions. We argue for a paradigm shift in policy and education—away from partial, politicized solutions and toward comprehensive, coordinated responses that reflect the real-world complexity of the problems we face.

Keywords: Webs of Causality (WoC); Systems Thinking; Wicked Problems; Policy Design; DSRP-483; Connect the Dots (CtD); Causal Complexity; Root Cause Thinking; One-Cause Thinking; Metacognition; Cognitive Complexity; Perspective Circle (Pcircle); Simultaneous Solutions; Polarization and Ideology; Public Policy Frameworks; 6 Cognitive Moves; Empirical SystemsThinking;

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